Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 1.203547 1.365028 1.535792 1.729383 1.942303 2.168888 2.427785
2025-02-02 0.976215 1.197831 1.446804 1.745526 2.092410 2.480709 2.946339
2025-02-09 0.791731 1.048953 1.355215 1.742703 2.215524 2.769211 3.461751
2025-02-16 0.647848 0.926675 1.278182 1.746133 2.344271 3.074281 4.022656
2025-02-23 0.512865 0.794706 1.171501 1.699382 2.405537 3.302300 4.509767
2025-03-02 0.394567 0.665345 1.050130 1.617814 2.412232 3.460770 4.921700
2025-03-09 0.321780 0.588405 0.989706 1.610577 2.515382 3.751010 5.524561
2025-03-16 0.257783 0.512905 0.920173 1.580944 2.582926 3.996914 6.084583
2025-03-23 0.221620 0.476091 0.904236 1.628308 2.764292 4.412379 6.903565
2025-03-30 0.174374 0.409802 0.830603 1.576274 2.790976 4.607171 7.422761
2025-04-06 0.141513 0.362909 0.782116 1.557990 2.866107 4.875789 8.062258
2025-04-13 0.113308 0.318392 0.730401 1.527007 2.916416 5.108099 8.659220
2025-04-20 0.096547 0.295559 0.717723 1.566675 3.092476 5.555429 9.621479
2025-04-27 0.081489 0.272649 0.701243 1.597561 3.256636 5.995268 10.598490
2025-05-04 0.067195 0.247328 0.675412 1.607526 3.385139 6.385904 11.520616
2025-05-11 0.055574 0.225335 0.652764 1.620672 3.520028 6.794948 12.493395
2025-05-18 0.043238 0.196456 0.608707 1.584311 3.560210 7.046907 13.224909
2025-05-25 0.031878 0.165282 0.552112 1.513037 3.526799 7.169194 13.748010
2025-06-01 0.025611 0.148724 0.528711 1.510694 3.625690 7.526801 14.679808
2025-06-08 0.019843 0.130838 0.497552 1.486049 3.677188 7.801803 15.482988
2025-06-15 0.017117 0.124395 0.497283 1.533904 3.879894 8.360694 16.797710
2025-06-22 0.012692 0.106939 0.460040 1.486477 3.879289 8.544502 17.465895
2025-06-29 0.009824 0.095078 0.436919 1.470704 3.943735 8.851710 18.362733